Election Post Mortem 2024

Charles and E.R. Shipp

(Baltimore, MD) I was covering the election night via “The Uncensored Podcast.” I had a number of political analysts who weighed-in, in real time. For most of my pundits there was “shock and dismay.” I was circumspect and ambivalent. Everett Marshburn echoed what I have said consistently, “Our ancestors often survived worse times than these; they clung to their faith and family and helped make a way out of no way! We owe them and each other that same spirit. Let us continue to move forward with our beliefs and love for each other. As the song says, 'this too shall pass!'" 

Looking back on those who chose to vote for Donald Trump, there were anomalies in constituencies which have traditionally backed Democratic candidates. Trump for all of his off message/rhetorical and take no prisoners attitude was being heard by a part of electorate, which put him back in the presidency. 

To some, these messages made his critics stew. I am reminded of the late Rush Limbaugh, “Ditto Rush.” Foregoing what people in the past thought, the rules weren’t broken, but rewritten. 

So what I saw was a major shift in non-college educated males…and it wasn’t just white males. It included Black men who are laborers/professional men who don’t need degrees, and Rappers who see themselves as self-made. I saw a poll in the New York Times which referred to them as “Cynical Black Voters.” This constituency was in plan sight. 

African-Americans are not a monolith. This group has varied ideas. A “National Black Value Voters Cluster” survey done in 2024, identified five distinct groups. It includes legacy Civil Rights voters, secular progressives, race neutral conservatives, NexGen traditionalist, and rightfully cynical. 

I want to focus on NexGen traditionalist and rightfully cynical. These two groups were persuadable. If you aren’t unfamiliar, their underlying thinking is the old adage “I can’t trust these fools.” You’ll find them in barbershops, or what I call “street pundits.” They are young, smart, and don’t buy into to the notion “you have to be with us.” 

There is also a much older group which made their money using their hands and their brains. Think of the old Black guy who can do plumbing, construction, and electrical work. They have sent their children to college. They tend to be conservative (no abortions, no LGBTQ, and anti-trans). They believe in nuclear families, but aren’t afraid to break up their own families. 

Latino men were also targeted. Many are second generation and have moved from urban areas to suburbia. They look and act white. Many of them have built generational wealth via starting businesses. Think of the landscaping companies, home repair businesses, and bodega owners where most of their employees speak Spanish. Some have been asked to join Country Clubs, which their wealthy white benefactors will tell you with pride, “see, we can’t be prejudice.” It isn’t a majority, but it’s more than they were banking on and larger than any other U.S President has received in votes. Laborers who own a truck and do day work and aren’t undocumented felt unseen. This constituency turned on Democrats and felt Trump understood their “hustle.” 

Young white men grew in this election. Like Trump’s last election, this is about fear and masculinity. The fear factor is fueled by economic conditions from inflation to job creation. This group thinks its being priced out of the “American Dream,” from housing, creating wealth, and family. There were signs that Kamala Harris failed to recognize. There are more college educated women than men. Her constant emphasis on women and their issues, turned off this constituency. The days of seeing a college degree as stepping stone. This constituency believes the world has passed them by because you have to pay rent, a car note, insurance and utilities. Paying for tuition at college is just not in the plan.

Masculinity is shown with this constituency in embracing guns, pushing a pro-male agenda, support for the military, and endorsement from law enforcement. This group is used to being called racists. They will tell you, they have Black friends. Calling women nasty and disparaging their intelligence is par for the course. Lastly, they don’t believe woman have “the balls” to confront world leaders. Trump has assured them he will and they will fear his unpredictably.

    

Trump’s closing message was run repeatedly during the Saturday College Football games (Deep irony… the non-college educated men hate higher education, but love college football). The college educated men were bombarded by an ad whose closing tagline was “Trump is for you, she’s for us and them.” For a lot of college educated men (Black and White) this was their first-time voting. They didn’t buy Harris message, and found her answers to a lot of questions unconvincing. Trump was seen at several major college football games on Saturday. His presence was shown on screens at the games. A new review found that these young men also used betting apps to choose Trump. 

I want to try and address why a majority of White women voted for Trump in the last two elections. These women are older and have lived in a patriarchal society. Men are seen as protectors for this constituency. They blow off vulgarities, because like the former first lady Melanie Trump, they see these comments more like “locker room talk.” I have heard some older white ladies suggest, they wish Trump would grab them in their private parts; it’s like a badge of honor. 

Some younger white women were actually drawn to Trump for his stance of barring trans-gender athletes from competing against them in sports. Shhh! Don’t tell anyone, this small group is devoutly religious across denominations. Evangelicals of this age rejected the Democratic Parties assault on abortion rights and sees those on the left are “anti-religious and “anti-democratic.” It’s emphasized by evangelical preachers as they worship. Their memory is myopic; they don’t remember the world before the right to abortion. If abortion is wrong then so is the usage of contraception and doctors being able to send birth control pills through the mail. 

There are a pair of mantras these “holy rollers” will tell to you when you don’t agree with their positions. “Isn’t abortion murder at any stage?” “ How many weeks can you wait to have abortion?” Some of these white women who are older and beyond child baring age, have no idea of what todays women face in states with strict rules. “I will protect you, whether you wanted or not,” said Trump.”

Don’t be fooled by Billionaires courting electoral votes. Let’s begin with Elon Musk. Musk, believes in that “Silicon adage, if we can’t beat you we will buy.” Musk who bought the former social media platform, Twitter and changed it to “X,” used his platform and vast resources to champion Donald Trump (How legal was lottery to win a million dollars?). Musk is a part of a new breed of “Silcom Valley” entrepreneurs, and venture capitalist who are referred to as the “tech-bros.” 

Another is Peter Thiel, a venture capitalist, who mentored J. D. Vance, used his knowledge, influence, and money to convince his millionaire friends to support Trump. The last item in this group are the owners of the Los Angeles Times and the Washing Post (who are billionaires). The owners killed endorsements by their editorial staff of supporting Kamala Harris. When you own the ink, you can print what you want. Their bet paid off; Trump won. 

Kamala Harris 

Let me begin with this, the margin of victory in most races especially in “battleground states” were 2-4 percentage points. Here are some of the constituencies which backed Harris: Black women, a majority of Black men, college educated women, and women who lived before Roe v. Wade was made law.

She lost working class voters and could not find a message to fit Latino men. In Michigan, especially in the Dearborn area, Arab-American voters abandon Harris because of her stance on Israel. The micro-targeting of conservative older Jewish women and Asian business people would normally flock to the Democrat Party abandoning their long tradition of supporting a party they had in the past. 

If you look at a map, it's red in the middle of the country and deep south. They see those on the coast as elitist. This is where the political divide is most stark. They enjoy activities in their backyard, yet you can find them in New York City and Los Angeles as tourists and shopping at expensive stores. 

The Democratic political class has no idea how to talk to this group. An example of this was on display in various public events. 

“What will you do on the first day as President?” Pause, “I have a to do list,” says Harris. Conversely, Trump told you exactly what he wanted to do on the first day. “I will sign an Executive Order deporting all illegal aliens.” 

“What would you do differently than President Biden. Pause, “I don’t think I would do anything differently, I want to let you know I am my own person.” 

Trump reminds those who will listen, “I will reinstate tariffs…protect the boarder…bring down gas prices…and get inflation under control.” 

The answers provided by Harris were seen as indecisive. It’s likely her answers were tested in focus groups. Those who saw/heard these answers were put off. 

You will hear a lot from those searching for blame and pointing to President Joe Biden. Did President Biden waited too long to turn the election over to his Vice President? There is also a small group thinking about immigrating to other countries. Her inability to connect with white men was pointed out in her decision to not go the on “The Joe Rogan Show.” Rogan’s show targets young White males. She was asked to come on the internet show; however Harris couldn’t work it out with her campaign itinerary. 

In the final days, she went negative on Donald Trump. Weeks before the election polls showed the electorate had made up their mind, Harris targeted undecided women and disaffected Republican women in the closing weeks. The consultants missed where the country was in looking at the election.

 

Adam C. Powell, III

I posed one of my last questions to my last guest on the “Uncensored Podcast,” Adam C. Powell, III. “What does it all mean?” Powell opined as he watched the results coming in, “the Democrats have become the party of college educated liberals, mainly white.” A statistic which sums up this dilemma, college educated voters now represent only 40% of the U.S. electorate. “Add in support from Black women, especially…and a few never Trumpers and you get to about forty-five percent, forty-six percent maybe forty-seven percent.” It’s literally where the Democratic party starts in any presidential election. Both sides are trying to convince the middle, which is made up of independents and undecided.” Neither side has been able to capture independents. “Harris is not performing as well as Biden,” according to the political analyst. “Both parties need to change.” 

Early voting numbers have favored Democrats in the past. In this election, early voting totals buoyed Democratic operatives. The GOP reversed course and urged their voters to take advantage of the chance to vote before election day. In some instances, GOP voters were besting Democrats. 

My simple observation for the Harris campaign is they banked on early voting, but failed to capitalize on Election Day. You can’t let up in tight races.

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A WEEK OF UPHEVAL

 (Baltimore, MD)  What a week. It began Sunday, 1/3/21, as a part of group of Journalist questioning Rep. James Clyburn (D) South Carolina for Journal-ism. During the Q and A, I asked Congressman Clyburn about a breaking news story regarding the President calling the Georgia Secretary of State and telling him to find more than 11-thousand votes to help overturn his election in the state. “I won’t put anything past the President,” said the South Carolina legislator (this idea would be revealed by Wednesday).

Tuesday, 1/4/21, I dropped in my office at the Annapolis State House preparing for the 2021 Maryland Legislative Session. In the area where I work, commonly referred to as “The Pit.” I have a pair of calendars on my desk. One shows the month, another shows the date. The date was March 20, 2020, the last time I was in State House. I did a Zoom call with colleagues, and snapped pictures of Lawyers Mall, where Justice Thurgood Marshall will return.

I head home to watch election results from the Georgia United States Senate. By 11 pm est. it was clear, Rev. Ralph Warnock, had defeated incumbent  Sen. Kelly Loeffler. There was uncertainty as to whether  Jon Ossoff  had defeated Sen. David Perdue (but it was trending in that direction). This election would  decide which party would control the Senate.

Rev. Ralph Warnock

I retire knowing Wednesday the Congress would begin counting the results of the Electoral College. Some members of the GOP in the House of Representatives [Jim Jordan (Ohio), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), and Louie Gohmert (Tex.)] were all in; in the Senate (Sen. Josh Hawley (MO)and  Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) went on record they would challenge the votes as well. They were urged on by the President who went on several social media sites (Twitter/Facebook/Parler) to urge supporters to come to Washington, DC to “stop the count.” There would be a rally outside the White House.

There were ominous signs, Mayor Mural asked DC residents, “avoid Downtown and confrontation,” Tuesday afternoon. The Mayor also put the National Guard on notice.

The  Hotel Harrington, which was frequented by members of “The Proud Boys,” announced it was closing it doors in anticipation of large crowds. Federal authorities arrest Enrique Tarrio, the leader of the Proud Boys Tuesday evening. These were signs.

Wednesday, 1/5/20, the day began with Vice President Mike Pence announcing he could not change the outcome of the election by selecting new electors. The President had urged him to do so, but the Vice President rejected this idea noting what the constitution spells out what his role is in this process. The President went on a twitter tirade. A letter was released by the Vice President to the public as to what his role is in this procedure. The process would begin at 1 pm.

At 11 am I begin watching the Electoral College count on CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, BBC, and NBC. I switch over to monitor the March to Save America on FOX, OAN, and NEWSMAX and see they are showing a rally of Trump supporters outside the White House.

Featured speakers include Rudolph Giuliani, “Let’s have trial by combat.” “This isn’t their Republican Party anymore!” Donald Trump Jr. yelled. “This is Donald Trump’s Republican Party!”

The President appears on stage at 12 noon(1-hour rant of how the election was stolen). The President urged the crowd “If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.” Trump says he will march with them to the Capitol. He doesn’t, but monitors activities from a tent then just outside the White House. From Trump, “Because you’ll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength and you have to be strong.”

The joint session of Congress convenes at 1 pm with Vice President Pence presiding. He begins to open the mahogany boxes which contains the votes of states. He stops on Arizona because there is a challenge. Each challenge will last 2 hours. AP calls race for Joss Ossoff in Georgia as they begin deliberations.

The chambers split and the challenge in each chamber begins. In a split screen you see the marchers heading to Capitol. The Capitol Police watch in horror as the crowd overwhelms the east and west side barricades. The group gains access to Inaugural staging area and on the grounds of the Capitol. That’s when things take a turn for the worst.

In the Senate, Secret Service remove the Vice President and Sen. Mitch McConnel. Over in the House of Representatives, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is shepherd away. The remaining members are taken to the same secure locations as the mob breaks into the Capitol making their way into two chambers.

I am glued like you to the television, wondering how is this possible? I worked in the Capitol prior to 911. I have been back since and it’s difficult to enter. Why wasn’t their more security? All of the officers had guns. Why weren’t they used? Why was it taking so long for National Guard from Maryland and Virginia to arrive to secure the building? When additional police arrive, why was this mob allowed to leave and not be arrested?

Several Republican leaders urged the President to go before the cameras to ask his supporters to leave the Capitol. He appeared on Twitter via video only to rant about the election being stolen and tell his supporters to leave. A second video appeared where he said, “We love you, but it is time to leave.”

At 6 PM curfew was imposed in Washington, DC by Mayor Bowser. Police officers began to move the crowd away from the Capitol grounds. Control is re-established. President Elect Biden addresses the nation. The Cong/ress reconvenes and commences the process a little after 9 PM. The first challenge to Arizona is defeated at 11 PM. The others follow suit and Joe Biden is named the President.

Thursday 1/7/21, I plan to go to Washington, DC. I take my son, Julian. As we get closer to the Capitol there is security everywhere. The first thing we notice is the erection of an eight-foot-high fence. As we get to the Reflection Pond, we notice a number of Trump supporters berating  international journalist. These Trump supporters believe they have done nothing wrong and are willing to tell anyone how they feel. There continue to be caravans of cars, buses and trucks with Trump flags.

Despite universal condemnation, they are unwavering in their belief the election was stolen. On Capitol Hill there is discuss, and shock as to how this happen. The assessment is swift. The Sargent of Arm is fired, the Chief of the Capitol Police resigns, and it’s announced the fencing will stay up during the Inauguration. There is word the President has gone to Camp David. There is serious talk about invoking the 25^th Amendment where the President is removed from office by the Vice President and eight members of the Cabinet. Speaker Pelosi says if this does not take place she will consider a second Impeachment.

I talk to Democrat Rep. Anthony Brown of Maryland about the events of the siege, lessons learned, and what should happen.

Friday 1/8/21, things are moving fast. The President records another video saying what his supporters did at the Capitol was wrong (It’s seems he’s been told this looks bad.). Twitter/Instagram announces a ban for @RealDonaldTrump. Others follow their lead mostly ban information till after the Inauguration.

There are intense discussions about the how and the why of mob getting into Capitol. A number of high-profile people seen in videos are arrested. There are bi-partisan discussion about how to proceed if Articles of Impeachment are drawn up. Same members of the GOP are against the idea saying it would further divide the country. Speaker Pelosi mays a call to the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to inquiry about safe guards around the nation’s nuclear arsenal. The Chief assures her safeguards are in place.

The FBI, the Metropolitan Police, and Capitol Police begin an investigation. More video inside the Capitol is released and shows a mob “hell-bent” on entering and desecrating the institution. There are few days left in the Trump Administration.

The chorus of condemnation is growing. An alternate version of the events includes: it was Antifa, the mob was exercising their First Amendment, and these were individuals who were frustrated. Stop!!! You broke the law and this is treason. We saw it and the world saw it.

Per South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, “Anything is possible.”

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