Election Post Mortem 2024

Charles and E.R. Shipp

(Baltimore, MD) I was covering the election night via “The Uncensored Podcast.” I had a number of political analysts who weighed-in, in real time. For most of my pundits there was “shock and dismay.” I was circumspect and ambivalent. Everett Marshburn echoed what I have said consistently, “Our ancestors often survived worse times than these; they clung to their faith and family and helped make a way out of no way! We owe them and each other that same spirit. Let us continue to move forward with our beliefs and love for each other. As the song says, 'this too shall pass!'" 

Looking back on those who chose to vote for Donald Trump, there were anomalies in constituencies which have traditionally backed Democratic candidates. Trump for all of his off message/rhetorical and take no prisoners attitude was being heard by a part of electorate, which put him back in the presidency. 

To some, these messages made his critics stew. I am reminded of the late Rush Limbaugh, “Ditto Rush.” Foregoing what people in the past thought, the rules weren’t broken, but rewritten. 

So what I saw was a major shift in non-college educated males…and it wasn’t just white males. It included Black men who are laborers/professional men who don’t need degrees, and Rappers who see themselves as self-made. I saw a poll in the New York Times which referred to them as “Cynical Black Voters.” This constituency was in plan sight. 

African-Americans are not a monolith. This group has varied ideas. A “National Black Value Voters Cluster” survey done in 2024, identified five distinct groups. It includes legacy Civil Rights voters, secular progressives, race neutral conservatives, NexGen traditionalist, and rightfully cynical. 

I want to focus on NexGen traditionalist and rightfully cynical. These two groups were persuadable. If you aren’t unfamiliar, their underlying thinking is the old adage “I can’t trust these fools.” You’ll find them in barbershops, or what I call “street pundits.” They are young, smart, and don’t buy into to the notion “you have to be with us.” 

There is also a much older group which made their money using their hands and their brains. Think of the old Black guy who can do plumbing, construction, and electrical work. They have sent their children to college. They tend to be conservative (no abortions, no LGBTQ, and anti-trans). They believe in nuclear families, but aren’t afraid to break up their own families. 

Latino men were also targeted. Many are second generation and have moved from urban areas to suburbia. They look and act white. Many of them have built generational wealth via starting businesses. Think of the landscaping companies, home repair businesses, and bodega owners where most of their employees speak Spanish. Some have been asked to join Country Clubs, which their wealthy white benefactors will tell you with pride, “see, we can’t be prejudice.” It isn’t a majority, but it’s more than they were banking on and larger than any other U.S President has received in votes. Laborers who own a truck and do day work and aren’t undocumented felt unseen. This constituency turned on Democrats and felt Trump understood their “hustle.” 

Young white men grew in this election. Like Trump’s last election, this is about fear and masculinity. The fear factor is fueled by economic conditions from inflation to job creation. This group thinks its being priced out of the “American Dream,” from housing, creating wealth, and family. There were signs that Kamala Harris failed to recognize. There are more college educated women than men. Her constant emphasis on women and their issues, turned off this constituency. The days of seeing a college degree as stepping stone. This constituency believes the world has passed them by because you have to pay rent, a car note, insurance and utilities. Paying for tuition at college is just not in the plan.

Masculinity is shown with this constituency in embracing guns, pushing a pro-male agenda, support for the military, and endorsement from law enforcement. This group is used to being called racists. They will tell you, they have Black friends. Calling women nasty and disparaging their intelligence is par for the course. Lastly, they don’t believe woman have “the balls” to confront world leaders. Trump has assured them he will and they will fear his unpredictably.

    

Trump’s closing message was run repeatedly during the Saturday College Football games (Deep irony… the non-college educated men hate higher education, but love college football). The college educated men were bombarded by an ad whose closing tagline was “Trump is for you, she’s for us and them.” For a lot of college educated men (Black and White) this was their first-time voting. They didn’t buy Harris message, and found her answers to a lot of questions unconvincing. Trump was seen at several major college football games on Saturday. His presence was shown on screens at the games. A new review found that these young men also used betting apps to choose Trump. 

I want to try and address why a majority of White women voted for Trump in the last two elections. These women are older and have lived in a patriarchal society. Men are seen as protectors for this constituency. They blow off vulgarities, because like the former first lady Melanie Trump, they see these comments more like “locker room talk.” I have heard some older white ladies suggest, they wish Trump would grab them in their private parts; it’s like a badge of honor. 

Some younger white women were actually drawn to Trump for his stance of barring trans-gender athletes from competing against them in sports. Shhh! Don’t tell anyone, this small group is devoutly religious across denominations. Evangelicals of this age rejected the Democratic Parties assault on abortion rights and sees those on the left are “anti-religious and “anti-democratic.” It’s emphasized by evangelical preachers as they worship. Their memory is myopic; they don’t remember the world before the right to abortion. If abortion is wrong then so is the usage of contraception and doctors being able to send birth control pills through the mail. 

There are a pair of mantras these “holy rollers” will tell to you when you don’t agree with their positions. “Isn’t abortion murder at any stage?” “ How many weeks can you wait to have abortion?” Some of these white women who are older and beyond child baring age, have no idea of what todays women face in states with strict rules. “I will protect you, whether you wanted or not,” said Trump.”

Don’t be fooled by Billionaires courting electoral votes. Let’s begin with Elon Musk. Musk, believes in that “Silicon adage, if we can’t beat you we will buy.” Musk who bought the former social media platform, Twitter and changed it to “X,” used his platform and vast resources to champion Donald Trump (How legal was lottery to win a million dollars?). Musk is a part of a new breed of “Silcom Valley” entrepreneurs, and venture capitalist who are referred to as the “tech-bros.” 

Another is Peter Thiel, a venture capitalist, who mentored J. D. Vance, used his knowledge, influence, and money to convince his millionaire friends to support Trump. The last item in this group are the owners of the Los Angeles Times and the Washing Post (who are billionaires). The owners killed endorsements by their editorial staff of supporting Kamala Harris. When you own the ink, you can print what you want. Their bet paid off; Trump won. 

Kamala Harris 

Let me begin with this, the margin of victory in most races especially in “battleground states” were 2-4 percentage points. Here are some of the constituencies which backed Harris: Black women, a majority of Black men, college educated women, and women who lived before Roe v. Wade was made law.

She lost working class voters and could not find a message to fit Latino men. In Michigan, especially in the Dearborn area, Arab-American voters abandon Harris because of her stance on Israel. The micro-targeting of conservative older Jewish women and Asian business people would normally flock to the Democrat Party abandoning their long tradition of supporting a party they had in the past. 

If you look at a map, it's red in the middle of the country and deep south. They see those on the coast as elitist. This is where the political divide is most stark. They enjoy activities in their backyard, yet you can find them in New York City and Los Angeles as tourists and shopping at expensive stores. 

The Democratic political class has no idea how to talk to this group. An example of this was on display in various public events. 

“What will you do on the first day as President?” Pause, “I have a to do list,” says Harris. Conversely, Trump told you exactly what he wanted to do on the first day. “I will sign an Executive Order deporting all illegal aliens.” 

“What would you do differently than President Biden. Pause, “I don’t think I would do anything differently, I want to let you know I am my own person.” 

Trump reminds those who will listen, “I will reinstate tariffs…protect the boarder…bring down gas prices…and get inflation under control.” 

The answers provided by Harris were seen as indecisive. It’s likely her answers were tested in focus groups. Those who saw/heard these answers were put off. 

You will hear a lot from those searching for blame and pointing to President Joe Biden. Did President Biden waited too long to turn the election over to his Vice President? There is also a small group thinking about immigrating to other countries. Her inability to connect with white men was pointed out in her decision to not go the on “The Joe Rogan Show.” Rogan’s show targets young White males. She was asked to come on the internet show; however Harris couldn’t work it out with her campaign itinerary. 

In the final days, she went negative on Donald Trump. Weeks before the election polls showed the electorate had made up their mind, Harris targeted undecided women and disaffected Republican women in the closing weeks. The consultants missed where the country was in looking at the election.

 

Adam C. Powell, III

I posed one of my last questions to my last guest on the “Uncensored Podcast,” Adam C. Powell, III. “What does it all mean?” Powell opined as he watched the results coming in, “the Democrats have become the party of college educated liberals, mainly white.” A statistic which sums up this dilemma, college educated voters now represent only 40% of the U.S. electorate. “Add in support from Black women, especially…and a few never Trumpers and you get to about forty-five percent, forty-six percent maybe forty-seven percent.” It’s literally where the Democratic party starts in any presidential election. Both sides are trying to convince the middle, which is made up of independents and undecided.” Neither side has been able to capture independents. “Harris is not performing as well as Biden,” according to the political analyst. “Both parties need to change.” 

Early voting numbers have favored Democrats in the past. In this election, early voting totals buoyed Democratic operatives. The GOP reversed course and urged their voters to take advantage of the chance to vote before election day. In some instances, GOP voters were besting Democrats. 

My simple observation for the Harris campaign is they banked on early voting, but failed to capitalize on Election Day. You can’t let up in tight races.

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